Neighboring Asian countries in China is the largest geopolitical conflicts largest and most complex strategies of the main, is today the world's only major country not to achieve reunification. Safeguarding national interests and seek the people happy, is in need of a firm will and superb iron wisdom.
21 century dramatic changes in the international strategic situation, the fundamental cause of global strategy from the U.S. attempt.
the security situation in the world with the very hegemony of the neo-conservative impulse to the historical stage and the deterioration of the government, one of the new ideological trend in the rise of imperialism, has shaken the 1648 international political ethics being violated, the international framework of contractual relations and international relations appear deconstruction trends. With the Bush administration refused to sign the . the United States abandoned the collapse.
conflicts of interest of national development the principal contradiction, competition for , thus determining the survival of inter-ethnic conflicts of interest development. The survival of the party conflict of interest is to promote
1995 年 9 27, in San Francisco has held a garbage. To solve this problem, first by Brzezinski's 20% of the elite will supply them to linger on some of consumption residue. Mainz, futurist Naisbitt and other neo-conservative guru Brzezinski. U.S. and UK policy and the reality of how much relations between the conference, we do not know, however, the effects of policies in countries such as United States and Britain appear to confirmed the consensus of the meeting.
the basic characteristics of China's security situation has not been finally conquered, as the U.S. mainland, Asia, the United States left too much recollection and reverie. in the U.S. global strategy, Asia is The lingering pain. Chinese growth on this continent is only God, and its security is not only by its unique natural to the impact of geographical, but also inevitably constrained by the U.S. strategy, both the decision of the Chinese security the basic trend of the environment.
situation one in neighboring Asian countries, China is the largest, most geopolitical conflicts, the most complex strategic subject. China's neighboring total of 20 neighbors, of which 14 countries bordering the land, across the phase Hope 6 countries, covering a variety of geographical conditions. China is the world's only major country not to achieve reunification, over the years, but also territorial disputes with other countries than any other country. Although in recent years to solve some disputes, but there are still more territory and territorial sea of complex disputes, and maritime rights and interests constantly being eroded. China and Russia, Japan and India three major strategies of the main proximity constraint is quite a lot. Russia is the continued economic recovery phase, strengthening the authoritarian Putin to revive arms, increasing the development of national , China, Russian energy strategy has revealed the future strategy of logistics information. Japanese rearmament accelerated in 1999, the ; Chinese naval activities India in the early 90s to adjust its national security strategy, clearly striving to be world class in the 21st century, the target power, for which, to achieve the military strategy established by the 80 ; change.
situation II, the rise of new nuclear power around our country, not only pose a threat to me, has become a chain reaction, or the reality of the conditions outside interference. India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons after the end of 2002, North Korea announced lift the nuclear freeze, exit, in common: they possess nuclear weapons are a direct threat to our security. in the near term, the safety significance of the three countries similar to me. First of all, India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons dare to make the backing of conflict. The two sides of any conflict, both directly affect our interests, and may introduce foreign forces to intervene and interfere in order to break the weak security infrastructure in western China. Second, Bush declared North Korea as deterioration of the situation on the peninsula at any time, may advance the introduction of United States intervention in the Korean peninsula. compete directly related to the U.S. and the DPRK in Northeast Asia peace and stability. the U.S. hardline policy toward the development of any non-rational will make the face of U.S. military power directly to me .
situation three, the United States forced to cut into the Central Asian country for the first time on land directly facing the U.S. military, the threat of the East West land has become a reality. visit the continent of Asia 50 years after the war has been an important goal of U.S. global strategy of one. DPRK War, the Vietnam War forced the United States has delayed the The only contact area, curb to live in Asia the last of the occupation of Afghanistan, buried in my personal risks west, so I thing the South on three sides by the enemy, the first time I land directly facing the U.S. defense forces, constituted a direct threat to the U.S..
situation four, the inherent safety recessive disease development, the Asia-Pacific countries and the United States League of recovery, our security, jump-Taiwan military relations contributed to the development of Taiwan independence forces, increasing the reunification of the motherland variables. Second, Nansha Islands and its maritime territory has been eroded. Nansha Islands, the U.S. military and political officials on the stand, with the national maritime military exercises frequently a direct threat to me sovereignty over the Nansha demands. Third, hh I look forward to the collapse of China. Over time, our existing safety problems will be exacerbated by U.S. intervention. The first is the Asian region after the Cold War US-Japan alliance has taken new steps to the common war. followed by the United States and India, development of relations between Japan and India cut from the military exchanges, this expedient a negative effect on cooperation with China. Furthermore, the United States and Japan's understanding on the Taiwan issue resolve the Taiwan issue to become the biggest variable; US-Indian cooperation on the issue of Tibet has reached a degree of understanding; Japan and India cooperation in the geographical and territorial issues constitute a slash of the best strategies to contain, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in 2000 August visit to India made it clear that a joint attempt to print Chinese: apparently gains a.
weak foundation of Chinese security forces
with globalization, the concept of security beyond a single, purely military connotation, a global consensus on comprehensive security concept, including not only political, economic, , military, diplomacy, science and technology and culture, also includes resources, environment, information and other fields. which, information security and economic security forces have become the basis of national security strategy, military and diplomatic power as the core of the traditional security remains a national security force subject. In focusing on economic development, China's security forces constitutes a showing, Foreign economic security have become increasingly apparent; technology gaining momentum, the total core intellectual property rights is limited; information technology infrastructure is weak, security sovereign control of others. At present, China imports about 70 million tons of crude oil in more than half from the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia region, of which 4 / 5 through the Malacca Strait maritime transport, and the transportation line to grasp the hands of his country. According to the International Energy Agency, according to China's domestic crude oil output unchanged predicts that by 2010, China's oil consumption 61% in 2020 76.9% year to rely on imports. This dependence on export-oriented economy that China's economic relations with potential opponents, and the relationship between oil suppliers and the channel of maritime transport security is becoming of our economy, then political and military the importance of safety factors. US-Japan defense targets and other countries on the maritime strategy China has formed around the objective of China's foreign economic lifeline, which restricts the power of marine economic development in China. in science and technology development, despite the good momentum of development, however, our high-tech the limited capacity of independent development, the core technology with independent intellectual property rights less. in information security, China's situation is more serious, more than 90% of software and hardware technologies are the core of the hands of the hands of the Americans, our country is almost no information system state of defense, whether the United States and Britain and other countries in the number of information devices implanted in the trap, we do not know.
principal balance as follows: strategic deterrence, military strength is stronger than conventional forces, conventional forces only for land-based homeland defense, information warfare capabilities to be increased. our existing military forces to fight the information war with the requirements of the existence of a gap. Although the arms imports reached an unprecedented level, but new weapons and the kinds of situations co-exist. Israel Harpy
in the next 10-15 years, the impact of China's peripheral security environment will be mainly the following factors.
1.
the impact of technology technology, especially the development of military technology continues to affect the security of all countries an important factor in the environment.
(a) strategic deterrence of the Cold War still exist
history shows that mutual assured destruction (MAD) as it sounds inhumane, but to maintain the strategic balance in the world, so that in the long 50 years of US-Soviet confrontation, the world has not experienced a nuclear war.
However, in the United States there is always some people want to get rid of the state of mutual deterrence. And after the Cold War the United States has an unprecedented dominance think it is possible for these people through establishment of an effective missile defense system, the real strategic advantage to obtain the absolute.
Thus, the U.S. and Russia the two nuclear powers, particularly the United States to maintain global strategic stability of today's strategic deterrence and technological progress in the attitude of a strategic decision deterrence in the next 10-15 years whether there will be.
as a focus of the world's best talents, but also has a large military system of the country, if the United States determined to develop a missile defense system, other countries basically can not stop. At the same time, Russia in missile defense technology has considerable resources invested. So you can imagine in the next 10-15 years, a certain sense, the strategic missile defense system is quite possible . In fact, the current missile defense systems (such as the U.S. Patriot air defense systems and Russia -3 of S-2000 system) has to intercept a number of tactical ballistic missiles, although they have yet to be further improved technology.
the missile the difficulty of intercepting and anti-blocking technology and technological progress, it seems unlikely that the missile defense technology to achieve high accuracy in a short volley, and the enormous destructive power of strategic nuclear missiles also make countries in the use of these weapons are careful, therefore, Although the stability of strategic deterrence will gradually be weakened, but strategic deterrence in the next 10-15 years there will still be to some extent.
However, once a certain degree of effective strategic missile defense system there, it is possible to change decision-makers in some countries such as China only has a small nuclear arsenals of the nuclear deterrence strategy. In other words, in the next 10-15 years, nuclear power countries like China to use nuclear weapons threshold will be reduced. more concern is similar to the recent U.S. also applies to the tactical running, so the threshold should be lowered to use nuclear weapons. United States, this state of mind and it will eventually have a certain degree of effective missile defense system superimposed together, the human may not be getting away from the nuclear doomsday but far more near.
(b) conventional forces
conventional war in the future, relying on technical means to obtain asymmetric battlefield information (and to prevent opponents of the war get enough information) to a large extent determine the country can whether the war to help their asymmetric warfare. and access to battlefield information asymmetry can not only win the war, but also to resistance of conflict. Thus, a country's industrial development in this regard not only to a competition in the global industry position, is related to the national security of life and death plans.
in the future if nuclear deterrence is maintained to some extent, the large-scale war between great powers are given little chance. in the future , the country's armed forces are more likely to be used against small-scale contingencies and low-intensity conflicts (such as the fight against terrorism and regional separatism), which requires the military must have a short time be able to use the power of the implementation of small enough scale strike capability. This is from the U.S. military response in Afghanistan, making the system a few times due to slow and lost many opportunities for Osama bin Laden captured or killed can see the importance of this ability. Therefore, the major countries of the armed forces to maintain an adequate deterrent and the ability to win local wars, while high-tech will continue to move in the development of flexible strike force.
(c) other technical
telecommunications and broadcasting technology have made international public opinion role in international relations, an increasingly important role. from the United States and Israel in 911 after the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the use of public opinion can be seen, if you can not get the support of international public opinion, a country in implementing its foreign policy will have to pay a heavy cost. the contrary, if a country can receive the support of international public opinion, or an event can shape the impression of a certain preconceived, it will be able to not only help to implement its own foreign policy, but also through public opinion foreign policy of other countries. public opinion can influence TV stations from the Arabian Peninsula of the 911 incident can be seen.
Today, however, international opinion is basically the West, or rather by the United States based media, while developing countries lack a global media influence public opinion. So, the future of international politics is to narrow the gap between North and South to some extent depends on the ability of developing countries have their own voice for communication, and .
international capital flows are breaking the boundaries between countries, and will affect the country's economic performance by affecting the country's foreign policy. A country that can not be independent to maintain the stability of its financial system, will have a certain degree of control of others.
2. America's global position and strategy
the United States as superpower in the next 10-15 years will continue to be difficult to shake. Therefore, the United States as China's important financial and technical sources and important export market, China's security strategy will continue to affect the overall security environment is one of the most important factors.
assume that the U.S. economy to maintain growth rate of 2%, while Russia, India, Brazil and China, and several other major economies of developing countries maintained the growth rate of 6%, Europe for 2% and Japan to maintain the growth rate of about 1%, then 2015, the United States in these important economic entity in the relative position will decline, the United States dominant position will be weakened to some extent. but because of other political entities are unlikely to get a full range of capabilities, coupled with the economic strength of the United States is still unbeatable in other countries, so the decline in relative position may not be real of meaning, the world will remain the basic pattern of a unipolar world.
However, by 2015-2020, the basic structure of a unipolar world may be coming to an end and begin to gradually weaken.
Throughout history After all, does not have any one great power can always maintain its dominant position. Perhaps the United States a stable political system and the unique geographical location makes the United States may become the first enduring power, but can the United States out of the cycle of history is still unpredictable.
911 incident has not weakened, and even strengthened in some sense America's global position. Thus, the U.S. is entering its foreign policy might be the expansion phase. However, under the banner of anti-terrorism, the U.S. arm is likely to overreach will commit an error (such as the United States decided to overthrow Saddam Hussein, and long-term involvement in Iraq), in some areas in trouble.
In the long term, overall strategy of the United States nothing more than one of the four. strategy is basically an too long after the setback will only be a short contract, will not fall into leadership strategy and constructive multilateral strategy among the three options. Because the U.S. policy preferences of different turns in power, under certain circumstances will be a mixture of both or all three, but focus is different with different leaders.
If the United States to continue in the next 10-15 years is similar to the current Bush administration's alert mental state will be more difficult. Sino-US relations will remain in the completely not break up the state, without any other situation can be expected. Even more frightening is that this strategy will be more likely to lead the United States number of pre-emptive strategies, the United States into a contempt for the sovereignty of other countries the right to the core of the development, can be reached on some issues, cooperation or understanding. But because so far, the United States (and Japan) do not accept the fundamental interests of Taiwan is vital, but not the United States and the vital interests of Japan, not even the fact that their vital interests. Thus, the US-Japan and China at this point the potential for conflict is real. As a result, the Taiwan issue is resolved, the United States and Japan be able to reach understanding of any strategy will is fragile and difficult to reach at least the strategy throughout the Asia Pacific region to understand: the United States in 1997-98 reached a settlement proved to be short and not strong.
the ideal state is of course the United States to take a constructive multilateral strategy. This strategy means that the United States to maintain its dominant position to be taken by the current strategy is a relatively the status of other countries fear the rise, but will use its dominant position to the United States and other key countries to to a lawful and reasonable international status and influence of the international order. Here, difference.
if the United States to adopt a cautious strategy or constructive leadership of the multilateral strategy, while China continues to present a cautious policy of defensive realism, through joint efforts between China and the U.S. will be able to achieve a certain degree of mutual strategic guarantee thus avoid the deterioration of the relationship for the future strategy to achieve a more solid understanding of lay a foundation.
the history of psychology and from the United States to determine the national spirit, between the United States to take leadership can not maintain absolute superiority, coupled with the elite of the United States is more acutely aware of day seems a long way off.
the future status of the United States, we may assert that if the status of the U.S. recession, because other countries will not launch a war against the United States, but because other countries will be the United States loss of confidence in the economy and financial system, which is no longer willing to buy large amounts of U.S. government bonds in order to maintain the high deficit of the United States. As a result, many American acts will be limited status has been weakened, although this does not mean There are other big countries to be able to replace its position.
3. Russia's renewable
post-Soviet Russia after a 10-year systolic, until Vladimir Putin came to power began to stabilize. from 2000 and 2001, the Russian economy has significantly out of the valley, began to have fairly steady growth.
President Putin and Russia's elite, well aware that Russia, at least not in the area now have a decisive voice on matters . Thus, Putin's Russia and the future implementation of essentially a and the United States to reach a compromise, as far as possible in order to devote more resources to economic development rather than compete with the United States. Russia will not put too many resources and a close neighbor of Russia, the United States forces in fierce competition. This is politics in Russia there is considerable consensus. then we see that in the post-9/11 United States, infiltration and the Caucasus, Central Asia, Putin against all the odds, or at least tolerate the acquiescence of U.S. intervention. Although many of these policies (mainly military ) opposition, but did not face too much pressure of public opinion. Of course, from the Russian mentality and national spirit of the historical point of view, Russia's full withdrawal to the policy is very unlikely.
However, the Russian Keeping a Low Profile will be content with being an important regional power, but not seeking to become the decision of a regional power.
break gave birth rate if Russia can maintain the momentum of economic development over the past two years, into a stable economic growth, Russia the overall influence of the surrounding area will not decline further. As a result, most CIS countries, Russia (except for some very edge of the country) will influence remained stable or even increased because of the strength of the Russian economy and has improved. However, the CIS countries, there are indeed restore the Russian Empire on fear, with the United States and other Western countries to contain all the CIS, the CIS as a force will not be much improved.
of the CIS if Russia can maintain even the current level of stability has improved, Russia will be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not much enthusiasm. CIS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to some extent, there are overlapping functions and scope, but is unlikely in the near future into one. However, as the situation develops, the two greatly weakened in a functional loss of that is basically automatic the possibility of the disappearance of all existence.
4. China's decision to become a regional power: potential and bottlenecks
China over the past two decades of reform and opening up has made remarkable achievements, the the ensuing Ten years of reform and opening up China to basically solve the problem relatively easily, the remaining issues are difficult issues and some new problems created by reform and opening up. These issues, such as the unreasonable allocation of social resources, income gap between different sectors further expansion, corruption, etc., now constitutes a bottleneck of China's development needs.
breakthrough in China's modernization needs is another bottleneck, as a country where protectionism is rampant in China and other countries to actively implement regional economic integration and trade and investment liberalization, China is lagging behind economic integration. and to take advantage of China's vast market to cultivate competitive Chinese enterprises to enterprises in different regions must be allowed to trade and investment liberalization in a competition environment. Thus, for China to fully access and regional economic integration and the benefits of trade and investment liberalization, we must increase efforts to complete the integration of the domestic market.
these problems will require China leaders take great effort to face, therefore, the Chinese diplomatic and security matters unlikely to spend too many resources: China's diplomatic security strategy in the future will still be quite a long time for China's peaceful development international environment. Generally speaking, due to China's development needs and the Chinese cultural philosophy of Foreign Affairs of China, China's current implementation of defensive realism as the core, plus some new liberal foreign security policy will continue.
Of course, with the rise in China's national strength, China's security environment of their influence will grow. this time the rise of China must confront how to deal with the problems brought about, in particular the balance of responsibility and status, how to be a responsible large country such an issue. This requires that China must be able not only positive, not blindly (for example, the error committed 60 years), the balance between aggressive and cautious.
in the era of rapidly rising national strength, China likely to arrogance of nationalism may also be because the Chinese leaders to guide and move towards nationalism more mature and inclusive. from Chinese nationals and to judge the mentality of the elite, the Chinese may be more likely to commit aggressive mistake, but not completely back in the wrong .
clear strategy to safeguard national security
of globalization and the rapid development of information technology today, China's security situation has not only depend on these factors, more importantly, the strategy depends on the subject at their own game Operations security strategy. determine the nature of national security strategy, the ability to address issues related to the grasp of the future strategic posture.
First, determine a clear strategic objectives and strategic interests. In the era of globalization, national interests manifestations may be vague, but its essence has not changed. Today, to determine a clear strategic objectives and strategic interests is more valuable than ever, security, logistics strategy makes more sense than ever. In the economy, complement not substitute, assign must be on the other only occur in the south of the 1999 bombing of the embassy. This seemingly unrelated events are intrinsically necessary connection, it reflects the content of other changes is the strategy of spatial and temporal nature of strategic planning.
Second, the delineation of a reasonable strategic boundaries. China's national security strategy is defensive in nature, and its strategic frontier coincides with the natural boundary of China. With the development of information technology and globalization, space and time content on the meaning of national security have changed, set a reasonable strategic buffer area is to adapt to changes in the basic principles of defensive security strategy, the requirements for the strategic response is even higher. the United States because of its offensive strategy has been to follow the that it is always at or near the forefront of the strategy of another country boundaries. policies at or near the U.S. strategy has become a security intrusion on the facts. At this point, China's strategic defense lack of the necessary and reasonable conditions. National Security Strategy of the border the border with the National Natural coincidence that the main loss of the necessary strategic logistics space. the future, China's security strategy is facing tough choices logistics.
Third, develop the necessary national defense strength. in terms of preventing a repetition of historical tragedies, or the protection of national implementation of the strategy , identify the source of the threat and the strategic intent, and then make the necessary preparations are necessary. China's economic development needs and realities of national defense strength, there have been a huge contrast. the lack of resources, options, pricing and high-tech market dominance circumstances, China's economic development need the protection of national defense forces. In this regard, Mr. Li Jijun has sounded the alarm: in the harsh international competition. Otherwise, the country with ancient culture and then it is difficult to avoid in ancient Greece, Persia, Babylon's fate. important condition for the overall situation, it is also in the adjacent side of the internal contradictions of various regional integration and gradually one of the prerequisites for the leading role. In the era of globalization, national security can not simply be a way through the development of military power to achieve, but must be more and more and more with other countries ...
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